What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East

Special What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East
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With his fist raised in a salute of defiance, a wounded Trump entered the iconography of American history in Butler, Pennsylvania. (Evan Vucci/AP)
Special What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East
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Updated 15 July 2024
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What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East

What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East
  • Presumptive Republican presidential nominee survived assassination bid at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday
  • Analysts say the attack may generate sympathy and votes for Trump, put Democrats further at a disadvantage

LONDON/ATLANTA: Saudi Arabia led the Arab world’s condemnation on Sunday of the assassination attempt on the life of former US president and current presidential candidate Donald Trump, stressing its rejection of violence, sending condolences to the deceased, and wishing a speedy recovery for those injured.

The Kingdom affirmed its “complete solidarity with the US, the former US president and his family.”

The day before, the world was left in shock when Trump was shot during a campaign rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania.




Donald Trump is escorted by Secret Service agents away from the stage as his right ear bleeds after being hit by an assassin's bullet on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania. (AP)

The bullets wounded Trump in his right ear, killing a spectator and critically injuring two others. The former president was escorted off stage by a group of secret service agents while pumping his fist and shouting, “Fight! Fight!”

The shooter, who had positioned himself on a nearby rooftop, was reportedly killed by police snipers. But in that brief moment when he nearly assassinated the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee, Crooks succeeded in damaging the political future of Biden, placed the Democratic Party in a difficult dilemma, and possibly sowed the seeds of further political polarization.

World leaders immediately condemned the shooting. The leaders of dozens of countries and the UN denounced the assassination attempt and political violence overall.

Leaders from across the Arab world joined in these condemnations. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the “extremist and criminal act,” and Bahrain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs labeled the attack as “a direct assault on democratic values.”

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi denounced the attack and hoped that the election campaigns would continue in a peaceful manner. Qatar’s foreign ministry also condemned the attack, stressing “the need to pursue dialogue and peaceful means and avoid political violence and hatred to overcome differences at all levels.”

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also condemned the shooting in a message from Ramallah.

Arab Americans from the left and right of the political spectrum spoke out against the failed assassination attempt.

“There is a lot we don’t know. But what we do know is that violent rhetoric can give rise to violent behavior. We need to take action and that violence is never the way to resolve political differences,” Jim Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute in Washington, told Arab News earlier on Sunday.

Current US president Joe Biden, who is also Trump’s opponent in the upcoming elections, posted on the social media platform X: “There’s no place for this kind of violence in America. We must unite as one nation to condemn it.”




President Joe Biden speaks at the White House in Washington on July 14, 2024, to denounce the assassination attempt on his rival Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. (AP)

Multiple replies to Biden’s post accused him of stirring anti-Trump rhetoric, with many going so far as to blame him for the shooting.

Some are questioning how the shooter, whom the FBI have identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks of Pennsylvania, managed to carry out his attempt on Trump’s life in the presence of secret service agents and police snipers.

“There are serious questions that have to be answered on how the gunman was allowed an unobstructed line of shot, from a nearby rooftop, under 200 meters from the stage on which the former president was standing,” Oubai Shahbandar, a defense analyst and former Pentagon Middle East adviser, told Arab News from Washington, D.C.

Little is known about the shooter. State voter records show him as a registered Republican, though he had previously donated to a liberal political action committee as a teenager. Nothing is known about Crooks’ motives, and so far, law enforcement and Crooks’ own family have been silent on the subject.




Police snipers return fire after shots were fired while Donald Trump was speaking at a campaign event in Butler, Penssylvania, on July 13, 2024. (AP)

Regardless of the motivations behind the shooting, many political analysts now believe that the assassination attempt will likely bolster Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming election.

“The image of President Trump, wiping the blood streaking across his face away, while defiantly raising his fist in the air and yelling ‘fight! fight!’ and the crowd roaring back ‘USA!’, is nothing short of historic. This will no doubt resonate with voters who contrast it with Biden’s apparent lethargy,” Shahbandar said.

Biden’s chances were already dampened by the June 27 presidential debate, where he was perceived widely to have performed very poorly. Biden appeared to ramble and struggle to speak at certain points, failing to match Trump’s energy and focus. A New York Times/Siena College poll found that after the debate, Trump led Biden 49 to 41 percent among registered voters.




Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives for the campaign rally on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania. As he was speaking, an assassin started firing and hit Trump on the ear. (AP)

“The assassination attempt targeting President Trump in fact struck the political future and the candidacy of President Biden and his campaign. The Democrats will be in a very difficult position moving forward. President Trump will garner a lot of sympathy,” Firas Maksad, senior director for strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News from Washington, D.C.

“It will be very difficult for the Democrats to continue to rely on attacking President Trump personally in their campaign. I also think that President Biden is mortally wounded. They will either have to replace him. If they are unsuccessful in doing so, they are heading to almost certain political defeat in the polls in November.”

According to Zach D. Huff, a Middle East expert and Republican political consultant who assisted President Trump’s 2020 re-election effort in Nevada, “Joe Biden’s loss is a given.”

“Regional powers now have time to try to factor in the impact of President Trump’s nearly guaranteed win,” he told Arab News from Dubai.




In this photo taken on May 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump (C-L), Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (C-R), and other officials pose for a group photo during the Arab Islamic American Summit in Riyadh. (AFP/File)

The impact of the assassination attempt may have ramifications far beyond Pennsylvania, or even the US.

Shahbandar, the defense analyst, said that “by all objective measures, the likelihood of a Trump return to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. is now incredibly high. And that will likely be met with wide support among senior leadership in the Middle East who are eager to engage a team they are well familiar with.”

Huff believes America’s rivals such as Iran and China will be “left guessing what Trump will do to repel their influence.”

“Hamas and Hezbollah could feel pressure to conclude their best possible deal while Biden is around, before Trump wins. They are unlikely to seek an escalation that could easily last into the next US administration,” he said.

As for Biden’s attempts to bring about a Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization, Huff said “the window has already closed, with no time left for the US Senate to ratify an agreement,” adding: “Saudi Arabia will probably find better terms under Trump and may feel less pressure to normalize ties with regional adversaries.”




This photo taken on Sept. 15, 2020 shows US President Donald Trump with Bahrain FM Abdullatif al-Zayani (left), Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, and UAE FM Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan during the signing of the Abraham Accords. (AFP)

The history of Trump’s approach to US relations Middle East countries is a checkered one, sometimes focusing on diplomacy and deals and, at other times, focusing on military force.

His first foreign trip in office in May 2017 was to Saudi Arabia, and he maintained warm relations with the Kingdom throughout his term.

In 2020, he facilitated the signing of the Abraham Accords, a series of bilateral agreements between Israel and the UAE and Israel and Bahrain. Morocco and Sudan followed suit the next year.

Trump faced criticism, however, for some of his Middle East policy decisions. In 2017 the then-president ordered a series of “precision” strikes on a Syrian airbase, drawing the ire of Russia and Iran. The decision was taken in retaliation for a chemical attack by the Syrian regime in which dozens of civilians were killed.




Children greet a US troop patrol in the Syrian town of al-Jawadiyah, in the northeastern Hasakeh province, near the border with Turkey, on Dec.17, 2020. (AFP)

Just two years later, in October 2019, Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria, where they had been supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

This decision was strongly condemned in a 354-60 vote in the US House of Representatives, as just days after the withdrawal, a Turkish incursion into the region led to the deaths of hundreds and displacement of 300,000 civilians.

Huff highlighted Trump’s 2024 policy platform, which calls for peace in the Middle East, support for Israel, and the rebuilding of “our alliance network in the region to ensure a future of peace, stability, and prosperity.”

“A key question is how far that alliance network will reach,” he said.




Kurdish fighters and veterans march on Oct.  8, 2019, in front of the UN office in the northern Kurdish Syrian city of Qamishli to protest against Turkish threats in the Kurdish region. (AFP)

“Will it include the Kurds, who hold the line against Iran, and who prevent a return of Daesh? Could it include Qatar and Turkey?”

Going forward, two US lawmakers intend to introduce bipartisan legislation providing President Biden, Trump and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. with enhanced Security Service protection.

The new law could give Donald Trump, Joe Biden and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr enhanced Secret Service protection. “Anything less would be a disservice to our democracy,” Congressmen Ritchie Torres and Mike Lawler said on Sunday.
 

 


France returns ancient artifacts to Ethiopia

France returns ancient artifacts to Ethiopia
Updated 4 sec ago
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France returns ancient artifacts to Ethiopia

France returns ancient artifacts to Ethiopia
  • The artifacts currently stored at the French Embassy in Addis Ababa will be delivered to the Ethiopian Heritage Directorate on Tuesday

ADDIS ABABA: France on Saturday began the return of some 3,500 archeolo-gical artifacts to Ethiopia, which Paris held since the 1980s for study.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot handed over two prehistoric stone axes, bifaces, and a stone cutter to Ethiopia’s Tourism Minister Selamawit Kassa during a visit to the National Museum in Addis Ababa.
The tools are “samples of nearly 3,500 artifacts from the excavations carried out on the Melka Kunture site,” a cluster of prehistoric sites south of the capital excavated under the direction of a late French researcher, Barrot said.
France and Ethiopia hold a longstanding bilateral agreement to cooperate in archeology and paleontology.
The artifacts stored at the French Embassy in Addis Ababa will be delivered to the Ethiopian Heritage Directorate on Tuesday.
“This is a handover, not a restitution, in that these objects have never been part of French public collections,” said Laurent Serrano, culture adviser at the French Embassy.
“These artifacts, which date back between 1 and 2 million years, were found during excavations carried out over several decades at a site near the Ethiopian capital,” he added.


Concern grows over rise in fatal migrant shipwrecks in Greece

Concern grows over rise in fatal migrant shipwrecks in Greece
Updated 11 min 49 sec ago
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Concern grows over rise in fatal migrant shipwrecks in Greece

Concern grows over rise in fatal migrant shipwrecks in Greece
  • UNHCR representative: ‘Counting lives lost at sea cannot become a norm’

ATHENS: The UN refugee agency has voiced concern at a rise in deaths of migrants trying to reach Greece by sea in small boats from Turkiye, following two fatal shipwrecks this week.

The UNHCR said in a statement Friday that 17 people have died in such accidents this month, while the total so far this year is at least 45 deaths.

Some 56,000 people have illegally entered Greece since Jan. 1, mostly by sea. That’s a five-year high, and the number has already exceeded government estimates of some 50,000 arrivals by the year’s end in October.

The UNHCR representative in Greece, Maria Clara Martin, said the migrant deaths “highlight the urgent need for long-term responses and safer and credible alternatives” for people fleeing conflict, persecution, violence, or human rights violations.

“Counting lives lost at sea cannot become a norm — we should not get used to it,” she said.

The UN agency said that this week’s two fatal accidents off the eastern Aegean Sea island of Samos, which is close to the Turkish coast, saw a mother lose three of her children, while another survivor lost his wife and daughter.

Greek authorities have attributed this year’s rise in migrant arrivals to conflicts in the Middle East. 

While there’s been a surge in people attempting the long and dangerous Mediterranean Sea crossing from Libya to the southern Greek island of Crete, most migrants pay smuggling gangs to ferry them from Turkiye to the eastern Aegean islands.

On Friday, the Greek coast guard said it arrested a 17-year-old Turkish youth on suspicion of having landed 16 migrants — including three children — on the eastern island of Chios.

Tunisia and Libya have become vital departure points for migrants, often from other African countries, who risk perilous Mediterranean Sea journeys in the hopes of reaching better lives in Europe.

Each year, tens of thousands of people attempt to make the crossing. Italy, whose Lampedusa island is only 150 km from Tunisia, is often their first port of call.

In the latest incident reported on Friday, two unidentified bodies were recovered off Tunisia’s eastern coast after a migrant boat capsized, with one person still missing and 28 rescued.

The boat had set sail from Teboulba, a coastal town some 180 km south of Tunis.

In late October, the bodies of 15 people believed to be migrants were recovered by authorities in Monastir, eastern Tunisia.

And in late September, 36 would-be migrants — mainly Tunisians — were rescued off Bizerte in northern Tunisia.

Since Jan. 1, at least 103 makeshift boats have capsized, and 341 bodies have been recovered off Tunisia’s coast, according to the Interior Ministry.


Kenyan, Ugandan presidents to mediate Ethiopia-Somalia dispute

Kenyan, Ugandan presidents to mediate Ethiopia-Somalia dispute
Updated 15 min 27 sec ago
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Kenyan, Ugandan presidents to mediate Ethiopia-Somalia dispute

Kenyan, Ugandan presidents to mediate Ethiopia-Somalia dispute
  • Somaliland has struggled to gain international recognition despite governing itself and enjoying comparative peace and stability since declaring independence in 1991

NAIROBI: Kenya’s President William Ruto said on Saturday he and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni would help mediate a dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia, threatening the region’s stability.

Landlocked Ethiopia, which has thousands of troops in Somalia to fight Al-Qaeda-linked insurgents, has fallen out with the Mogadishu government over its plans to build a port in the breakaway region of Somaliland in exchange for possible recognition of its sovereignty.

Somaliland has struggled to gain international recognition despite governing itself and enjoying comparative peace and stability since declaring independence in 1991.

The spat has drawn Somalia closer to Egypt, which has quarreled with Ethiopia for years over Addis Ababa’s construction of a vast hydro dam on the Nile River, and Eritrea, another of Ethiopia’s foes.

Somaliland has struggled to gain international recognition despite governing itself and enjoying comparative peace and stability since declaring independence in 1991.

“Because the security of Somalia ... contributes significantly to the stability of our region, and the environment for investors, business people, and entrepreneurs to thrive,” he told a news conference.

Several attempts to resolve the feud in Ankara, Turkiye, failed to make a breakthrough.

Ethiopia’s government and foreign affairs spokespeople did not immediately respond to requests for comment. 

Somalia’s foreign minister could not immediately be reached by Reuters.

The government of Somalia’s semi-autonomous Jubbaland state said earlier it was suspending relations and cooperation with the federal government in Mogadishu following a dispute over regional elections.

Jubbaland, which borders Kenya and Ethiopia and is one of Somalia’s five semi-autonomous states, reelected regional president Ahmed Mohammed Islam Madobe for a third term in elections on Monday.

However, the national government based in Mogadishu, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, opposed the election, saying it was held without federal involvement.


Russian missile strike on central Ukraine kills 4: Zelensky

Russian missile strike on central Ukraine kills 4: Zelensky
Updated 37 min 38 sec ago
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Russian missile strike on central Ukraine kills 4: Zelensky

Russian missile strike on central Ukraine kills 4: Zelensky
  • More than a dozen others were wounded, including a child
  • “A rescue operation is currently underway in the Dnipro region,” Zelensky said

KYIV: A Russian missile strike on a town in Ukraine’s central Dnipropetrovsk region on Saturday killed at least four people, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
More than a dozen others were wounded, including a child, while a residential building and shop were damaged, according to officials.
“A rescue operation is currently underway in the Dnipro region after the missile strike. As of now, it is known that four people were killed,” Zelensky said in his evening address.
Tsarychanka is about 50 kilometers (30 miles) north of the region’s capital Dnipro.
The town had a population of around 7,000 people before the war.
The nearly three-year conflict has seen a sharp escalation in recent days, with Moscow pummelling Ukrainian towns and cities ahead of the winter.
Russia launched more than a hundred drones at Ukraine on Friday, a day after knocking out power to more than a million people with strikes on energy infrastructure.


Zelensky says NATO offer for Ukraine-controlled territory could end ‘hot stage’ of war

Zelensky says NATO offer for Ukraine-controlled territory could end ‘hot stage’ of war
Updated 30 November 2024
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Zelensky says NATO offer for Ukraine-controlled territory could end ‘hot stage’ of war

Zelensky says NATO offer for Ukraine-controlled territory could end ‘hot stage’ of war
  • “You can’t give an invitation to just one part of a country,” the Ukrainian president said
  • “So legally, by law, we have no right to recognize the occupied territory as territory of Russia”

KYIV: An offer of NATO membership to territory under Kyiv’s control would end “the hot stage of the war” in Ukraine, but any proposal to join the military alliance should be extended to all parts of the country that fall under internationally recognized borders, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a broadcast interview.
Zelensky’s remarks on Friday signaled a possible way forward to the difficult path Ukraine faces to future NATO membership. At their summit in Washington in July, the 32 members declared Ukraine on an “irreversible” path to membership. However, one obstacle to moving forward has been the view that Ukraine’s borders would need to be clearly demarcated before it could join so that there can be no mistaking where the alliance’s pact of mutual defense would come into effect.
“You can’t give an invitation to just one part of a country,” the Ukrainian president said in an excerpt of the interview with Sky News, dubbed by the UK broadcaster. “Why? Because thus you would recognize that Ukraine is only that territory of Ukraine and the other one is Russia.”
Under the Ukrainian constitution, Ukraine cannot recognize territory occupied by Russia as Russian.
“So legally, by law, we have no right to recognize the occupied territory as territory of Russia,” he said.
Since the start of the war in 2022, Russia has been expending huge amounts of weaponry and human life to make small-but-steady territorial gains to the nearly one-fifth of Ukraine it already controls in east and southern Ukraine.
“If we want to stop the hot stage of the war, we should take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control. That’s what we need to do, fast. And then Ukraine can get back the other part of its territory diplomatically,” he said.
An invitation for Ukraine to join NATO is one key point of Zelensky’s “victory plan”, which he presented to Western allies and the Ukrainian people in October. The plan is seen as a way for Ukraine to strengthen its hand in any negotiations with Moscow.
Earlier this week, NATO’s new Secretary General Mark Rutte said that the alliance “needs to go further” to support Ukraine in its fight against a Russian invasion. Military aid to Kyiv and steps toward ending the war are expected to be high on the agenda when NATO members’ foreign ministers meet in Brussels for a two-day gathering starting on December 3.
However, any decision for Ukraine to join the military alliance would require a lengthier process and the agreement of all member states.
There is also uncertainty as to the foreign policy stance of President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump vowed on the campaign trail to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a single day, he has not publicly discussed how this could happen. Trump also announced Wednesday that Keith Kellogg, an 80-year-old, highly decorated retired three-star general, would serve as his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.
In April, Kellog wrote that “bringing the Russia-Ukraine war to a close will require strong, America First leadership to deliver a peace deal and immediately end the hostilities between the two warring parties.”
Meanwhile, during his only campaign debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump twice refused to directly answer a question about whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war — raising concerns that Kyiv could be forced to accept unfavorable terms in any negotiations.
Zelensky’s statement comes as Ukraine faces increasing pressure along the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) frontline. In its latest report, the Washington-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War said Saturday that Russian forces had recently advanced near Kupiansk, in Toretsk, and near Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka, a key logistics route for the Ukrainian military.
Ukraine’s air force announced Saturday that the country had come under attack from ten Russian drones, of which eight were shot down over the Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson regions. One drone returned to Russian-occupied territory, while the final drone disappeared from radar, often a sign of the use of electronic defenses.
Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry said that 11 Ukrainian drones had been shot down by the country’s air defense systems. Both the mayor of Sochi, Andrey Proshunin, and the head of Russia’s Dagestan region, Sergey Melikov, both in Russia’s southwest, said that drones had been destroyed in their regions overnight. No casualties were reported.
On Friday, the Ukrainian president announced a number of changes to military leadership, saying that changes in personnel management were needed to improve the situation on the battlefield.
General Mykhailo Drapatyi, who led the defense of Kharkiv during Russia’s new offensive on Ukraine’s second-largest city this year, was appointed the new head of Ukraine’s Ground Forces. Oleh Apostol was named as the new Deputy Commander-in-Chief responsible for improving military training.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi also announced Friday that he would bolster units in Donetsk, Pokrovsk and Kurakhove with additional reserves, ammunition, weapons and military equipment.