What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East

Special What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East
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With his fist raised in a salute of defiance, a wounded Trump entered the iconography of American history in Butler, Pennsylvania. (Evan Vucci/AP)
Special What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East
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Updated 15 July 2024
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What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East

What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East
  • Presumptive Republican presidential nominee survived assassination bid at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday
  • Analysts say the attack may generate sympathy and votes for Trump, put Democrats further at a disadvantage

LONDON/ATLANTA: Saudi Arabia led the Arab world’s condemnation on Sunday of the assassination attempt on the life of former US president and current presidential candidate Donald Trump, stressing its rejection of violence, sending condolences to the deceased, and wishing a speedy recovery for those injured.

The Kingdom affirmed its “complete solidarity with the US, the former US president and his family.”

The day before, the world was left in shock when Trump was shot during a campaign rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania.




Donald Trump is escorted by Secret Service agents away from the stage as his right ear bleeds after being hit by an assassin's bullet on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania. (AP)

The bullets wounded Trump in his right ear, killing a spectator and critically injuring two others. The former president was escorted off stage by a group of secret service agents while pumping his fist and shouting, “Fight! Fight!”

The shooter, who had positioned himself on a nearby rooftop, was reportedly killed by police snipers. But in that brief moment when he nearly assassinated the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee, Crooks succeeded in damaging the political future of Biden, placed the Democratic Party in a difficult dilemma, and possibly sowed the seeds of further political polarization.

World leaders immediately condemned the shooting. The leaders of dozens of countries and the UN denounced the assassination attempt and political violence overall.

Leaders from across the Arab world joined in these condemnations. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the “extremist and criminal act,” and Bahrain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs labeled the attack as “a direct assault on democratic values.”

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi denounced the attack and hoped that the election campaigns would continue in a peaceful manner. Qatar’s foreign ministry also condemned the attack, stressing “the need to pursue dialogue and peaceful means and avoid political violence and hatred to overcome differences at all levels.”

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also condemned the shooting in a message from Ramallah.

Arab Americans from the left and right of the political spectrum spoke out against the failed assassination attempt.

“There is a lot we don’t know. But what we do know is that violent rhetoric can give rise to violent behavior. We need to take action and that violence is never the way to resolve political differences,” Jim Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute in Washington, told Arab News earlier on Sunday.

Current US president Joe Biden, who is also Trump’s opponent in the upcoming elections, posted on the social media platform X: “There’s no place for this kind of violence in America. We must unite as one nation to condemn it.”




President Joe Biden speaks at the White House in Washington on July 14, 2024, to denounce the assassination attempt on his rival Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. (AP)

Multiple replies to Biden’s post accused him of stirring anti-Trump rhetoric, with many going so far as to blame him for the shooting.

Some are questioning how the shooter, whom the FBI have identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks of Pennsylvania, managed to carry out his attempt on Trump’s life in the presence of secret service agents and police snipers.

“There are serious questions that have to be answered on how the gunman was allowed an unobstructed line of shot, from a nearby rooftop, under 200 meters from the stage on which the former president was standing,” Oubai Shahbandar, a defense analyst and former Pentagon Middle East adviser, told Arab News from Washington, D.C.

Little is known about the shooter. State voter records show him as a registered Republican, though he had previously donated to a liberal political action committee as a teenager. Nothing is known about Crooks’ motives, and so far, law enforcement and Crooks’ own family have been silent on the subject.




Police snipers return fire after shots were fired while Donald Trump was speaking at a campaign event in Butler, Penssylvania, on July 13, 2024. (AP)

Regardless of the motivations behind the shooting, many political analysts now believe that the assassination attempt will likely bolster Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming election.

“The image of President Trump, wiping the blood streaking across his face away, while defiantly raising his fist in the air and yelling ‘fight! fight!’ and the crowd roaring back ‘USA!’, is nothing short of historic. This will no doubt resonate with voters who contrast it with Biden’s apparent lethargy,” Shahbandar said.

Biden’s chances were already dampened by the June 27 presidential debate, where he was perceived widely to have performed very poorly. Biden appeared to ramble and struggle to speak at certain points, failing to match Trump’s energy and focus. A New York Times/Siena College poll found that after the debate, Trump led Biden 49 to 41 percent among registered voters.




Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives for the campaign rally on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania. As he was speaking, an assassin started firing and hit Trump on the ear. (AP)

“The assassination attempt targeting President Trump in fact struck the political future and the candidacy of President Biden and his campaign. The Democrats will be in a very difficult position moving forward. President Trump will garner a lot of sympathy,” Firas Maksad, senior director for strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News from Washington, D.C.

“It will be very difficult for the Democrats to continue to rely on attacking President Trump personally in their campaign. I also think that President Biden is mortally wounded. They will either have to replace him. If they are unsuccessful in doing so, they are heading to almost certain political defeat in the polls in November.”

According to Zach D. Huff, a Middle East expert and Republican political consultant who assisted President Trump’s 2020 re-election effort in Nevada, “Joe Biden’s loss is a given.”

“Regional powers now have time to try to factor in the impact of President Trump’s nearly guaranteed win,” he told Arab News from Dubai.




In this photo taken on May 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump (C-L), Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (C-R), and other officials pose for a group photo during the Arab Islamic American Summit in Riyadh. (AFP/File)

The impact of the assassination attempt may have ramifications far beyond Pennsylvania, or even the US.

Shahbandar, the defense analyst, said that “by all objective measures, the likelihood of a Trump return to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. is now incredibly high. And that will likely be met with wide support among senior leadership in the Middle East who are eager to engage a team they are well familiar with.”

Huff believes America’s rivals such as Iran and China will be “left guessing what Trump will do to repel their influence.”

“Hamas and Hezbollah could feel pressure to conclude their best possible deal while Biden is around, before Trump wins. They are unlikely to seek an escalation that could easily last into the next US administration,” he said.

As for Biden’s attempts to bring about a Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization, Huff said “the window has already closed, with no time left for the US Senate to ratify an agreement,” adding: “Saudi Arabia will probably find better terms under Trump and may feel less pressure to normalize ties with regional adversaries.”




This photo taken on Sept. 15, 2020 shows US President Donald Trump with Bahrain FM Abdullatif al-Zayani (left), Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, and UAE FM Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan during the signing of the Abraham Accords. (AFP)

The history of Trump’s approach to US relations Middle East countries is a checkered one, sometimes focusing on diplomacy and deals and, at other times, focusing on military force.

His first foreign trip in office in May 2017 was to Saudi Arabia, and he maintained warm relations with the Kingdom throughout his term.

In 2020, he facilitated the signing of the Abraham Accords, a series of bilateral agreements between Israel and the UAE and Israel and Bahrain. Morocco and Sudan followed suit the next year.

Trump faced criticism, however, for some of his Middle East policy decisions. In 2017 the then-president ordered a series of “precision” strikes on a Syrian airbase, drawing the ire of Russia and Iran. The decision was taken in retaliation for a chemical attack by the Syrian regime in which dozens of civilians were killed.




Children greet a US troop patrol in the Syrian town of al-Jawadiyah, in the northeastern Hasakeh province, near the border with Turkey, on Dec.17, 2020. (AFP)

Just two years later, in October 2019, Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria, where they had been supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

This decision was strongly condemned in a 354-60 vote in the US House of Representatives, as just days after the withdrawal, a Turkish incursion into the region led to the deaths of hundreds and displacement of 300,000 civilians.

Huff highlighted Trump’s 2024 policy platform, which calls for peace in the Middle East, support for Israel, and the rebuilding of “our alliance network in the region to ensure a future of peace, stability, and prosperity.”

“A key question is how far that alliance network will reach,” he said.




Kurdish fighters and veterans march on Oct.  8, 2019, in front of the UN office in the northern Kurdish Syrian city of Qamishli to protest against Turkish threats in the Kurdish region. (AFP)

“Will it include the Kurds, who hold the line against Iran, and who prevent a return of Daesh? Could it include Qatar and Turkey?”

Going forward, two US lawmakers intend to introduce bipartisan legislation providing President Biden, Trump and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. with enhanced Security Service protection.

The new law could give Donald Trump, Joe Biden and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr enhanced Secret Service protection. “Anything less would be a disservice to our democracy,” Congressmen Ritchie Torres and Mike Lawler said on Sunday.
 

 


South Korea’s military says North Korea fired missile into eastern sea

South Korea’s military says North Korea fired missile into eastern sea
Updated 58 min 21 sec ago
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South Korea’s military says North Korea fired missile into eastern sea

South Korea’s military says North Korea fired missile into eastern sea
  • The South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missile was fired from an area near Pyongyang
  • Seoul denounces the launch as a provocation that poses a serious threat on the Korean Peninsula

SEOUL: North Korea on Monday fired a ballistic missile that flew 1,100 kilometers before landing in waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan, South Korea’s military said, extending its heightened weapons testing activities into 2025 weeks before Donald Trump returns as US president.
The South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missile was fired from an area near the North Korean capital of Pyongyang and that the launch preparations were detected in advance by the US and South Korean militaries. It denounced the launch as a provocation that poses a serious threat to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
The joint chiefs said the military was strengthening its surveillance and defense posture in preparation for possible additional launches and sharing information on the missile with the United States and Japan.
The launch came as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was visiting Seoul for talks with South Korean allies over the North Korean nuclear threat and other issues.
Blinken’s visit comes amid political turmoil in South Korea following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s short-lived martial law decree and subsequent impeachment by parliament last month, which experts say puts the country at a disadvantage in getting a steady footing with Trump ahead of his return to the White House.
In a year-end political conference, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to implement the “toughest” anti-US policy and criticized the Biden administration’s efforts to strengthen security cooperation with Seoul and Tokyo, which he described as a “nuclear military bloc for aggression.”
North Korean state media did not specify Kim’s policy plans or mention any specific comments about Trump. During his first term, Trump met Kim three times for talks on the North’s nuclear program.
Many experts, however, say a quick resumption of Kim-Trump summitry is unlikely as Trump would first focus on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. North Korea’s support for Russia’s war against Ukraine also poses a challenge to efforts to revive diplomacy, experts say.
Before his presidency faltered over the ill-conceived power grab, Yoon worked closely with US President Joe Biden to expand joint military exercises, update nuclear deterrence strategies and strengthen trilateral security cooperation with Tokyo.


More than 260 Rohingya refugees arrive in Indonesia

More than 260 Rohingya refugees arrive in Indonesia
Updated 06 January 2025
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More than 260 Rohingya refugees arrive in Indonesia

More than 260 Rohingya refugees arrive in Indonesia
  • The mostly Muslim ethnic Rohingya are heavily persecuted in Myanmar
  • Latest group of refugees arrived on a beach in the region’s town of West Peureulak

BANDA ACEH, Indonesia: More than 260 Rohingya refugees, including women and children, arrived in Indonesia’s easternmost province of Aceh after floating at sea for days, an official said Monday.
The mostly Muslim ethnic Rohingya are heavily persecuted in Myanmar and thousands risk their lives each year on long and dangerous sea journeys to reach Malaysia or Indonesia.
An East Aceh official, Iskandar – who like many Indonesians goes by one name – said this latest group of refugees arrived on a beach in the region’s town of West Peureulak on Sunday night around 10:25 p.m. local time (1525 GMT Sunday).
“There are 264 of them – 117 men and 147 women,” Iskandar said Monday, adding that in the group, around 30 were children.
He said they had initially been on two boats, one of which had sunk off the coast while the second managed to move closer to shore.
They could then walk to the shore when the tide was low, he said.
“They told me they were rejected in Malaysia,” Iskandar said, adding that the local government has not decided where to move the Rohingya refugees.
Rohingya arrivals in Indonesia tend to follow a cyclical pattern, slowing during the stormy months and picking back up when sea conditions calm down.
In November, more than 100 refugees were rescued after their boat sank off the coast of East Aceh.
In October, 152 Rohingya refugees were finally brought ashore after being anchored for days off the coast of South Aceh district while officials decided whether to let them land.
Indonesia is not a signatory to the UN refugee convention and says it cannot be compelled to take in refugees from Myanmar, calling instead on neighboring countries to share the burden and resettle the Rohingya who arrive on its shores.
Many Acehnese, who have memories of decades of bloody conflict themselves, are sympathetic to the plight of their fellow Muslims.
But others say their patience has been tested, claiming the Rohingya consume scarce resources and occasionally come into conflict with locals.


Up to 300 Afghans arrive in Philippines for US visa processing

Up to 300 Afghans arrive in Philippines for US visa processing
Updated 06 January 2025
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Up to 300 Afghans arrive in Philippines for US visa processing

Up to 300 Afghans arrive in Philippines for US visa processing
  • Action made despite domestic opposition in the Catholic-majority country over security and other concerns
  • The Afghans could stay for no more than 59 days and would be ‘confined to their billet facility’ except for embassy interviews

MANILA: Up to 300 Afghans arrived in the Philippines on Monday on temporary stays while being processed for US resettlement, Philippine and US officials said.
The Philippines and the United States signed an agreement last July allowing possibly hundreds of Afghans to stay in Manila while their US Special Immigrant visas were being processed.
This was despite domestic opposition in the Catholic-majority country over security and other concerns.
“The DFA issued the appropriate Philippine entry visa to these applicants in line with current rules and regulations,” Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Teresita Daza said in a statement.
“All applicants completed extensive security vetting by Philippines national security agencies.”
A US State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, would not be specific about the number involved other than to say “up to 300.”
Under the deal, the US government will shoulder the cost of the Afghans’ stays in Manila, including food, housing, medical care, security and transportation, the Philippine DFA statement said.
The Afghans will stay at a facility operated by the US State Department’s Coordinator for Afghan Relocation Efforts, an earlier US Embassy statement said.
Daza had previously said the Afghans could stay for no more than 59 days and would be “confined to their billet facility” except for embassy interviews.
The applicants all underwent medical screening in Afghanistan.
Tens of thousands of Afghans fled their country in the chaotic evacuation of August 2021 as US and allied forces pulled out to end Washington’s longest war, launched after the attacks on September 11, 2001.
Many of those who had worked with the ousted Western-backed government arrived in the United States seeking resettlement under a special immigrant visa program, but thousands were also left behind or in third countries, waiting for their visas to be processed.


Blinken to meet Europeans on Syria pathway

Blinken to meet Europeans on Syria pathway
Updated 06 January 2025
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Blinken to meet Europeans on Syria pathway

Blinken to meet Europeans on Syria pathway
  • Senior US diplomat Barbara Leaf met Sharaa last month and said that the United States was lifting a bounty that has been on its head

Seoul: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet his European counterparts Thursday in Rome on Syria, as the West looks to engage the new Islamist-led leadership.
Blinken will “meet with European counterparts to advocate for a peaceful, inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political transition,” a State Department statement said as he visited Seoul on Monday.
The State Department did not immediately specify the participants.
Blinken, on a trip that will also take him to Japan and France, will later join President Joe Biden as he pays a farewell visit to Rome that includes an audience with Pope Francis.
Islamist-led forces toppled longtime ruler Bashar Assad in a lightning offensive last month after 13 years of brutal war.
Western powers have since been cautiously hoping for greater stability in Syria, a decade after the war triggered a major refugee crisis that shook up European politics.
The French and German foreign ministers on Friday visited Syria, although the trip was overshadowed when new leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa shook the hand only of France’s Jean-Noel Barrot, a man, and not Germany’s Annalena Baerbock, a woman.
Senior US diplomat Barbara Leaf met Sharaa last month and said that the United States was lifting a bounty that has been on its head.
She also welcomed “positive messages” he has made, including on protection of minorities, and said he had promised that Syria would not pose a threat to neighboring countries, as Israel pounds Syrian military sites.


The quiet financier: Daesh’s elusive strongman

The quiet financier: Daesh’s elusive strongman
Updated 06 January 2025
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The quiet financier: Daesh’s elusive strongman

The quiet financier: Daesh’s elusive strongman
  • Abdul Qadir Mumin is believed to be already Daesh’s general directorate of provinces from Somalia
  • Born in Puntland in Somalia’s northeast, Sheikh Mumin lived in Sweden before settling in England, where he acquired British nationality
  • In London and Leicester, he built a reputation in the early 2000s as a fiery preacher in radical mosques, but also in online videos

PARIS: His orange henna-dyed beard and striking eyewear would make him easy to pick out in a crowd, but Abdul Qadir Mumin has remained elusive.
The Somalian leader of the Daesh group has in all likelihood risen to the status of strongman of the entire organization, even if he lacks the official title, analysts say.
While observers wonder who is behind Daesh-designated caliph Abou Hafs Al-Hachimi Al-Qourachi — the would-be leader of all Muslims — or whether such a person actually exists, Abdul Qadir Mumin may already be running Daesh’s general directorate of provinces from Somalia.
“He is the most important person, the most powerful one, he is the one controlling the global Islamic State network,” said Tore Hamming, at the International Center for the Study of Radicalization (ICSR).
In this opaque structure where the leaders get killed one by one by the United States, Mumin is among the few “senior guys who managed to stay alive the entire time until now, which does give him some status within the group,” Hamming told AFP.
A few months ago it was thought that an American strike had killed him. But since there was never any proof of his demise, he is considered to be alive and active.
“Somalia is important for financial reasons,” said Hamming. “We know that they send money to Congo, to Mozambique, to South Africa, to Yemen, to Afghanistan. So they have a good business model going.”
The transactions are so shadowy that even estimating the amounts is impossible — as is determining the exact routes the money takes from place to place.

Born in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland in Somalia’s northeast, Sheikh Mumin lived in Sweden before settling in England, where he acquired British nationality.
In London and Leicester, he built a reputation in the early 2000s as a fiery preacher in radical mosques, but also in online videos.
He is said to have burned his British passport upon his arrival in Somalia, where he quickly became a propagandist for the Al-Shabab group, linked to Al-Qaeda, before announcing his defection to Daesh (or Islamic State) in 2015.
“He controls a small territory but has a big appeal. He distributes volunteers and money,” said a European intelligence official, who declined to be named, claiming that a Daesh attack in May in Mozambique “was carried out by Maghreb and African militants.”
Mumin also finances the Ugandan rebels of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) — affiliated with Daesh in the Democratic Republic of Congo — “who now number between 1,000 and 1,500,” the official said. With Mumin’s help, “they have recently turned to the jihad” seeking “radicalism, weapons, and funding.”
Some observers have described him as the caliph of the jihadist command structure. However, such an official designation would signal an ideological reversal for the group with deep roots in the Levant, the territory of the Daesh caliphate that lasted from 2014 to 2019 and spanned Iraq and Syria.
“That would create some kind of uproar within the community of supporters and sympathizers of Daesh,” said Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter-Extremism Project (CEP) think tank.

In theory, the caliph has to be an Arab from a tribe linked to the prophet. The supreme leader of a group so concerned with its ideological foundations “cannot be just any Somali with an orange beard,” Schindler told AFP.
Especially because leaders of operationally active Daesh affiliates, such as IS-K in Afghanistan or ISWAP in western Africa, could lay claim to the position.
While the Somalian does not meet traditional leadership criteria, his geographical location brings some advantages.
“The Horn of Africa may have offered welcome insulation from instability in the Levant and greater freedom of movement,” said CTC Sentinel, a publication on terrorism threats, at the West Point military academy.
“This profile of leadership parallels that of another jihadi leader — Osama bin Laden — who saw that funding his war was most central to winning it,” it said.
Mumin’s rise to the top, despite the small number of fighters under his command, also reflects two internal dynamics within Daesh.
The first, said Hamming, is that “the caliph is no longer the most important person in the Islamic State.”
And the second is that Daesh eeeeeis indeed pursuing a gradual strategic shift toward Africa.
“Ninety percent of violent images on jihad consumed in Europe come from Africa,” said the European intelligence official.
Nonetheless, the organization’s leadership remains centralized in the Middle East, wrote CTC Sentinel.
“In this sense, much is business as usual,” it said.